We’re a little more than two months into the 2023 Player of the Year Race. So far, it’s been exciting with Cooper Rogers going undefeated until just this past week. Stormy Stormerson taking home wins in nearly every league, losing only to Cooper (the first time) and “Highlander” Doug George in the second finals of a WATL league. Joey the Hat is in the same boat, taking home three league championships in one week at Chopper’s Hatchet House. Mike Philabaum, Vin Crescenzo, Colby Dean and Vail Cook have all taken home big wins at WATL events. Nick Kolomyja is continuing to piece together wins even without a home venue as we consider rule changes to allow “The Garage” to be submitted for consideration in the rankings as well.
How do the rankings work?
As mentioned in the first post, players are ranked head-to-head. This is done using an Elo Rating System. To start with, I’ve taken a very simple formula for axe throwers. Each person is given a 1600 rating to start. For each match, an expected outcome is calculated using the rankings.
This formula gives a prediction of the outcome based on each players ratings using Ra and Rb as the ratings of the two players. This expectation is then multiplied by the K factor (I’ve used 20 until now) to determine how many points each player is wagering for a match. For example, if player A has a 60% chance of winning, they wager .6 x 20 = 12 points. Player B would wager .4 x 20 = 8 points. If player A wins, they take 8 points from player B. If player B wins, they take 12 points from player A.
What changes are being made?
I’m making two changes to the rankings. First, the K value will no longer be static at 20. Due to the differences in matches between IATF and WATL, there should be a difference. WATL league playoffs are single game matches, WATL Tournaments are typically best of 3, and IATF events are best of 5 and best of 7. This causes different variations depending on skill and length of match. For instance, if a player has a 75% chance of winning one game, they’ll win a best of 3 84% of the time, a best of 5 89% of the time, and best of 7 93% of the time. For this reason, IATF events will weight heaviest with a K value of 24. WATL Tournaments will have a K value of 22, and WATL League Playoffs will carry a K value of 20.
Secondly, to make the leaderboard more accessible for smaller venues, the minimum for leagues and tournaments will be lowered to 8. However, any tournament with less than 16 players or league playoffs with less than 12 players will have a K value of 16. Hopefully more people will be able to take advantage of the leaderboard.
Why do IATF Leagues need to submit screenshots?
Each week, I manually process all of the tournaments submitted to me. Since Axescores does not publish tournament brackets, and this method relies on head-to-head results, I need brackets to be submitted (clearly) so that I can record the results. Just finding the correct player names, checking to see if there’s been a name change since their last tournament, then comparing them to the WATL player list for crossover, each player can take several minutes to process. With a 16 person IATF bracket, several minutes per person can easily turn into an hour per playoff bracket. Add in a 128-player WATL bracket and see if you don’t go insane. So if you could please ask your league runner for a screenshot, that would be great. Providing real names of throwers would also be a massive help.
How do you have the time to do this?
I don’t. I really don’t. Between running Total Axe seven days a week, putting together the Axe Throwing Events Calendar, and trying not to go insane, this is several hours in the week that I don’t have. It’s just about 4am on Thursday morning as I post this before taking a nap. So why am I doing it? The other systems are systemically broken and there is no change in sight. I honestly believe that they’re doing more harm than good and continuing the breakdown of the sport. I’m of the opinion that you need to “put up or shut up” so I’m putting up. I’m putting up my time every week and a lot of my own money to try and fix a sport that multiple corporations are drastically and carelessly sucking the life blood out of.
How do I submit my event?
At the bottom of the leaderboard, there is a form with a few basic questions. IATF league playoffs need a screenshot from the league runner to submit.